With the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates to help ease Americans’ financial burden during the coronavirus pandemic, average U.S. mortgage rates fell victim to the downward spiral.
The latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows that the average 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) is 3.55%, and the average 15-Year FRM is 2.77%. For context, the former has increased by a spread of 82 basis points (0.82%) year-over-year (YoY), while the latter has increased by a spread of 56 basis points (0.56%).
Mortgage Type: | Average Interest Rate: | Change: |
Average 30-Year FRM | 3.55% | 0.82% |
Average 15-Year FRM | 2.77% | 0.56% |
Average 5/1-Year ARM | 2.71% | – 0.07% |
For your reference: the average 30-Year and 15-Year FRM figures apply to conventional mortgages with 80% loan-to-value ratios.
In addition, an FRM is an amortizing loan where your interest rate and monthly mortgage payment stay constant throughout the life of the loan. Conversely, an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) amortizes with a variable interest rate, and the rate changes throughout the loan’s life.
And the average 5/1-Year ARM?
Embedded with both fixed and variable components, a 5/1-Year ARM is a hybrid mortgage where the 5 implies a fixed rate for the first five years with a variable rate after that.
National Statistics:
The latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows that the average 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) is 3.55%, and the average 15-Year FRM is 2.77%. The former has increased by a spread of 82 basis points (0.82%) year-over-year (YoY), while the latter has increased by a spread of 56 basis points (0.56%).
The average 30-Year FRM has declined by 29% since Q1 2010, while the average 15-Year FRM and the average 5/1-Year ARM have decreased by 37% and 35%, respectively, during that same timeframe. On top of that, the trio has declined by 4%, 12%, and 20%, respectively, relative to Q4 2019.
The average 30-year origination fee rate (0.68%) is the same as in Q1 2010, while the 15-year origination fee rate (0.67%) has increased by 4%, and the average 5/1-year origination fee rate (0.40%) has decreased by 32%.
By State:
myFICO’s Home Purchase Center shows that average mortgage rates are similar across all states. As such, the national average 30-Year FRM is 3.47%, and the average monthly payment is $1,344.
By Credit Score:
Borrowers with FICO Scores ranging from 760-850 receive an average 2.83% annual percentage rate (APR) on 30-Year FRMs. Conversely, borrowers with FICO Scores ranging from 620-639 receive an average 4.42% APR on 30-Year FRMs.
Originations By Credit Score:
The Fed’s latest findings in its Household Debt and Credit report show that mortgage originations — which tally Americans’ new mortgage balances and refinances — were nearly $1.115 trillion in the third quarter of 2021.
69% of those new/refinanced loans came from Americans with an Equifax Risk Score of 760 or more. Conversely, only 5.1% came from Americans with a credit score of 659 or less.
While mortgage activity has increased recently for borrowers with low credit scores, the <620 bracket is the only cohort still operating below Q4 2019 levels.
States With Highest/Lowest Credit Scores:
Residents of Hawaii (772), Minnesota (771), and Oregon (770) have the highest average FICO Scores among the top ten states where Americans hold mortgage debt. And not far behind, Hawaii (5.97x) and Oregon (4.30x) rank first and fourth among states with the highest income multipliers.
Georgia (745), Tennessee (745), and Kentucky (745) have the highest average FICO Scores among the bottom ten states where Americans hold mortgage debt. Likewise, Georgia (3.50x) and Tennessee (3.32x) have income multipliers ranking first and third.
Average Savings on Mortgage Refinancing:
Borrowers who refinanced their mortgages in 2021 saw their average mortgage rate decline by a spread of 1.23%.
Borrowers that opted for a cash-out refinance saved an average of $34 on their annual payments, while borrowers that opted for a non-cash-out refinance saved an average of $2,741, and borrowers that engaged in some form of mortgage refinancing saved an average of $1,616.
Banks Tightening Mortgage Lending Standards:
The net percentage of U.S. banks tightening their mortgage lending standards on subprime mortgages and government mortgages are 9.1% and – 1.8%, respectively.
Mortgage Payments and Disposable Income:
Americans allocated 3.81% of their disposable income to their mortgage payments in Q3 2021. Moreover, the figure has declined by 40% since Q1 2010.
Mortgage Delinquency Rates:
U.S. commercial banks’ delinquency rate on single-family residential mortgages fell to an all-time low of 2.27% in the third quarter of 2021. Moreover, the metric has declined by 80% since Q1 2010 and is down by 3% from its pre-pandemic level (2.35% in Q4 2019).
With U.S. mortgage rates stuck in their lower-for-longer trend, the average 30-Year FRM has declined by 29% since Q1 2010. And one-upping their counterpart, the average 15-Year FRM and the average 5/1-Year ARM have decreased by 37% and 35%, respectively, during that same timeframe.
On top of that, the trio has declined by 4%, 12%, and 20%, respectively, relative to Q4 2019.
Period: | Average 30-Year FRM: | Average 15-Year FRM: | Average 5/1-Year ARM: |
2010:Q1 | 5.00% | 4.38% | 4.20% |
2010:Q2 | 4.92% | 4.30% | 3.99% |
2010:Q3 | 4.45% | 3.92% | 3.64% |
2010:Q4 | 4.44% | 3.82% | 3.51% |
2011:Q1 | 4.85% | 4.12% | 3.73% |
2011:Q2 | 4.65% | 3.84% | 3.45% |
2011:Q3 | 4.29% | 3.47% | 3.12% |
2011:Q4 | 4.00% | 3.30% | 2.95% |
2012:Q1 | 3.92% | 3.19% | 2.84% |
2012:Q2 | 3.79% | 3.04% | 2.82% |
2012:Q3 | 3.55% | 2.84% | 2.75% |
2012:Q4 | 3.36% | 2.67% | 2.72% |
2013:Q1 | 3.50% | 2.74% | 2.65% |
2013:Q2 | 3.67% | 2.84% | 2.68% |
2013:Q3 | 4.44% | 3.48% | 3.19% |
2013:Q4 | 4.29% | 3.35% | 2.99% |
2014:Q1 | 4.36% | 3.40% | 3.08% |
2014:Q2 | 4.23% | 3.31% | 3.02% |
2014:Q3 | 4.14% | 3.26% | 2.99% |
2014:Q4 | 3.96% | 3.17% | 2.98% |
2015:Q1 | 3.72% | 3.01% | 2.93% |
2015:Q2 | 3.82% | 3.06% | 2.91% |
2015:Q3 | 3.95% | 3.15% | 2.94% |
2015:Q4 | 3.90% | 3.12% | 2.97% |
2016:Q1 | 3.74% | 3.02% | 2.90% |
2016:Q2 | 3.59% | 2.85% | 2.80% |
2016:Q3 | 3.45% | 2.75% | 2.77% |
2016:Q4 | 3.84% | 3.10% | 3.03% |
2017:Q1 | 4.17% | 3.40% | 3.22% |
2017:Q2 | 3.98% | 3.24% | 3.13% |
2017:Q3 | 3.88% | 3.17% | 3.18% |
2017:Q4 | 3.92% | 3.29% | 3.27% |
2018:Q1 | 4.28% | 3.74% | 3.58% |
2018:Q2 | 4.54% | 4.01% | 3.76% |
2018:Q3 | 4.57% | 4.03% | 3.88% |
2018:Q4 | 4.78% | 4.21% | 4.07% |
2019:Q1 | 4.37% | 3.82% | 3.87% |
2019:Q2 | 4.01% | 3.46% | 3.63% |
2019:Q3 | 3.66% | 3.13% | 3.40% |
2019:Q4 | 3.70% | 3.16% | 3.39% |
2020:Q1 | 3.52% | 2.98% | 3.26% |
2020:Q2 | 3.24% | 2.71% | 3.20% |
2020:Q3 | 2.95% | 2.46% | 2.97% |
2020:Q4 | 2.76% | 2.29% | 2.89% |
2021:Q1 | 2.88% | 2.28% | 2.83% |
2021:Q2 | 3.00% | 2.31% | 2.67% |
2021:Q3 | 2.87% | 2.17% | 2.46% |
2021:Q4 | 3.55% | 2.77% | 2.71% |
With mortgage origination fees increasing borrowers’ out-of-pocket expenses, the expenditures compensate lenders for providing loans. For context, origination fees are quoted as a percentage of the mortgage loan and are paid upfront when the application is processed.
And interestingly, while the average 30-year mortgage rate has declined precipitously, Freddie Mac’s data shows that the average 30-year origination fee rate (0.68%) is the same as in Q1 2010. Even more revealing, the 15-year origination fee rate (0.67%) has increased by 4% since Q1 2010. However, the average 5/1-year origination fee rate (0.40%) has decreased by 32% since Q1 2010.
On the flip side, all three have increased relative to Q4 2019. For example, since the coronavirus pandemic struck, the 30-year, 15-year, and 5/1-year origination fee rates have increased by 17%, 24%, and 11%, respectively.
Period: | Average 30-Year FRM: | Average 15-Year FRM: | Average 5/1-Year ARM: |
2010:Q1 | 0.68% | 0.64% | 0.59% |
2010:Q2 | 0.69% | 0.66% | 0.65% |
2010:Q3 | 0.71% | 0.65% | 0.64% |
2010:Q4 | 0.78% | 0.72% | 0.63% |
2011:Q1 | 0.72% | 0.72% | 0.65% |
2011:Q2 | 0.69% | 0.70% | 0.58% |
2011:Q3 | 0.72% | 0.65% | 0.57% |
2011:Q4 | 0.74% | 0.77% | 0.58% |
2012:Q1 | 0.78% | 0.79% | 0.72% |
2012:Q2 | 0.73% | 0.68% | 0.64% |
2012:Q3 | 0.66% | 0.63% | 0.61% |
2012:Q4 | 0.70% | 0.63% | 0.62% |
2013:Q1 | 0.75% | 0.72% | 0.58% |
2013:Q2 | 0.75% | 0.71% | 0.52% |
2013:Q3 | 0.73% | 0.71% | 0.56% |
2013:Q4 | 0.70% | 0.66% | 0.44% |
2014:Q1 | 0.68% | 0.65% | 0.46% |
2014:Q2 | 0.62% | 0.55% | 0.42% |
2014:Q3 | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.47% |
2014:Q4 | 0.51% | 0.52% | 0.50% |
2015:Q1 | 0.62% | 0.58% | 0.46% |
2015:Q2 | 0.63% | 0.56% | 0.46% |
2015:Q3 | 0.61% | 0.60% | 0.45% |
2015:Q4 | 0.61% | 0.57% | 0.43% |
2016:Q1 | 0.55% | 0.48% | 0.46% |
2016:Q2 | 0.54% | 0.49% | 0.49% |
2016:Q3 | 0.52% | 0.49% | 0.45% |
2016:Q4 | 0.52% | 0.51% | 0.42% |
2017:Q1 | 0.48% | 0.48% | 0.41% |
2017:Q2 | 0.50% | 0.49% | 0.46% |
2017:Q3 | 0.52% | 0.50% | 0.47% |
2017:Q4 | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.38% |
2018:Q1 | 0.52% | 0.50% | 0.39% |
2018:Q2 | 0.46% | 0.41% | 0.32% |
2018:Q3 | 0.48% | 0.45% | 0.32% |
2018:Q4 | 0.48% | 0.44% | 0.30% |
2019:Q1 | 0.45% | 0.41% | 0.29% |
2019:Q2 | 0.51% | 0.45% | 0.39% |
2019:Q3 | 0.54% | 0.51% | 0.37% |
2019:Q4 | 0.58% | 0.54% | 0.36% |
2020:Q1 | 0.71% | 0.72% | 0.25% |
2020:Q2 | 0.74% | 0.70% | 0.36% |
2020:Q3 | 0.79% | 0.75% | 0.29% |
2020:Q4 | 0.70% | 0.61% | 0.29% |
2021:Q1 | 0.68% | 0.63% | 0.28% |
2021:Q2 | 0.68% | 0.63% | 0.27% |
2021:Q3 | 0.66% | 0.64% | 0.29% |
2021:Q4 | 0.68% | 0.67% | 0.40% |
While many other loan metrics differ by state, myFICO’s Home Purchase Center shows that average mortgage rates are similar across all states. As such, FICO’s data reveals that the national average 30-Year FRM is 3.47%, and the average monthly payment is $1,344.
For context, the data assumes a single-family residential mortgage of $300,000 with an 80% LTV ratio.
myFICO’s portal also breaks down mortgage rates by credit score. And as expected, borrowers with the highest FICO Scores often receive the lowest mortgage rates, while borrowers with the lowest FICO scores often receive the highest mortgage rates.
For example, borrowers with FICO Scores ranging from 760-850 receive an average 2.83% annual percentage rate (APR) on 30-Year FRMs. Conversely, borrowers with FICO Scores ranging from 620-639 receive an average 4.42% APR on 30-Year FRMs.
FICO Score Range: | Average 30-Year FRM: | Average Monthly Mortgage Payment: |
760-850 | 2.83% | $1,237 |
700-759 | 3.05% | $1,273 |
680-699 | 3.23% | $1,302 |
660-679 | 3.44% | $1,337 |
640-659 | 3.87% | $1,410 |
620-639 | 4.42% | $1,505 |
The Fed’s latest findings in its Household Debt and Credit report show that mortgage originations — which tally Americans’ new mortgage balances and refinances — were nearly $1.115 trillion in the third quarter of 2021.
However, 69% of those new/refinanced loans came from Americans with an Equifax Risk Score of 760 or more. Conversely, only 5.1% came from Americans with a credit score of 659 or less.
Interestingly, Americans in the lowest credit score bracket (<620) saw their mortgage originations increase by 34% YoY in Q3. In contrast, Americans in the highest credit score bracket (760+) saw their mortgage originations increase by 2% YoY.
However, the data results from the flurry that occurred during the height of the COVID-19 outbreak. For example, mortgage originations among the 760+ credit score bracket are 61% above where they were pre-pandemic (Q4 2019). Conversely, mortgage originations among the <620 credit score bracket are 14% below where they were pre-pandemic.
As a result, while mortgage activity has increased recently for borrowers with low credit scores, the <620 bracket is the only cohort still operating below Q4 2019 levels.
Period (Billions): | <620: | 620 – 659: | 660 – 719: | 720 – 759: | 760 +: | Total: |
2010:Q1 | $24.1 | $19.4 | $53.1 | $100.7 | $182.3 | $379.5 |
2010:Q2 | $16.5 | $20.1 | $52.4 | $100.6 | $176.1 | $365.8 |
2010:Q3 | $17.6 | $16.6 | $60.0 | $115.7 | $179.2 | $389.1 |
2010:Q4 | $18.9 | $18.3 | $47.6 | $122.9 | $255.3 | $463.0 |
2011:Q1 | $13.0 | $15.9 | $48.0 | $134.5 | $285.8 | $497.2 |
2011:Q2 | $11.6 | $15.3 | $41.6 | $97.4 | $185.9 | $351.9 |
2011:Q3 | $12.9 | $15.8 | $41.0 | $93.6 | $129.0 | $292.3 |
2011:Q4 | $15.7 | $14.6 | $48.4 | $106.4 | $219.0 | $404.1 |
2012:Q1 | $13.0 | $17.1 | $45.9 | $100.3 | $235.5 | $411.8 |
2012:Q2 | $10.8 | $16.9 | $53.2 | $129.0 | $251.9 | $461.8 |
2012:Q3 | $15.4 | $21.5 | $60.1 | $145.0 | $278.5 | $520.6 |
2012:Q4 | $16.4 | $23.3 | $71.7 | $155.6 | $285.8 | $552.8 |
2013:Q1 | $16.0 | $19.5 | $68.4 | $140.6 | $332.4 | $576.8 |
2013:Q2 | $18.4 | $20.9 | $77.1 | $158.8 | $303.8 | $578.9 |
2013:Q3 | $16.8 | $24.7 | $78.7 | $149.9 | $278.6 | $548.8 |
2013:Q4 | $16.2 | $18.9 | $65.7 | $134.6 | $216.0 | $451.4 |
2014:Q1 | $16.2 | $21.0 | $50.6 | $92.1 | $151.9 | $331.9 |
2014:Q2 | $11.8 | $15.5 | $49.3 | $77.0 | $132.1 | $285.7 |
2014:Q3 | $16.4 | $15.2 | $61.1 | $100.7 | $143.6 | $337.0 |
2014:Q4 | $14.9 | $22.0 | $62.4 | $100.6 | $154.2 | $354.2 |
2015:Q1 | $15.0 | $13.9 | $60.2 | $97.5 | $182.0 | $368.5 |
2015:Q2 | $16.2 | $21.7 | $73.5 | $122.1 | $232.3 | $465.7 |
2015:Q3 | $15.9 | $23.6 | $73.4 | $88.5 | $287.7 | $489.1 |
2015:Q4 | $21.4 | $24.0 | $77.4 | $70.8 | $243.3 | $436.9 |
2016:Q1 | $15.4 | $17.9 | $64.4 | $65.2 | $225.7 | $388.6 |
2016:Q2 | $14.6 | $24.7 | $71.1 | $76.2 | $240.1 | $426.6 |
2016:Q3 | $15.8 | $23.5 | $78.6 | $76.4 | $282.9 | $477.1 |
2016:Q4 | $22.8 | $28.0 | $100.6 | $105.2 | $360.2 | $616.8 |
2017:Q1 | $17.7 | $22.8 | $74.2 | $77.7 | $299.1 | $491.4 |
2017:Q2 | $15.2 | $22.8 | $73.0 | $81.0 | $229.4 | $421.5 |
2017:Q3 | $18.6 | $23.9 | $84.0 | $78.9 | $274.0 | $479.4 |
2017:Q4 | $20.4 | $23.7 | $74.9 | $76.3 | $256.3 | $451.5 |
2018:Q1 | $14.9 | $21.0 | $66.9 | $76.4 | $248.7 | $427.9 |
2018:Q2 | $16.1 | $21.1 | $71.7 | $73.9 | $254.7 | $437.5 |
2018:Q3 | $14.5 | $23.8 | $73.8 | $79.6 | $253.6 | $445.3 |
2018:Q4 | $15.2 | $23.9 | $68.2 | $61.9 | $232.3 | $401.5 |
2019:Q1 | $14.3 | $19.2 | $55.6 | $61.2 | $193.7 | $344.0 |
2019:Q2 | $18.4 | $26.9 | $70.7 | $78.2 | $279.8 | $474.1 |
2019:Q3 | $18.3 | $23.6 | $78.2 | $86.3 | $321.9 | $528.3 |
2019:Q4 | $26.9 | $28.5 | $98.4 | $119.6 | $478.6 | $752.0 |
2020:Q1 | $19.3 | $24.1 | $84.0 | $109.1 | $425.3 | $661.7 |
2020:Q2 | $16.7 | $26.6 | $94.2 | $120.6 | $588.3 | $846.4 |
2020:Q3 | $17.3 | $28.5 | $106.8 | $142.4 | $754.3 | $1,049.3 |
2020:Q4 | $20.7 | $32.4 | $124.9 | $158.6 | $838.0 | $1,174.6 |
2021:Q1 | $15.7 | $29.2 | $110.7 | $151.7 | $831.1 | $1,138.4 |
2021:Q2 | $19.2 | $34.7 | $127.8 | $167.8 | $868.3 | $1,217.8 |
2021:Q3 | $23.2 | $33.5 | $130.4 | $158.4 | $769.0 | $1,114.6 |
The latest data from Experian shows that higher credit scores often lead to higher income multipliers. We calculate the metric by dividing states’ average mortgage balance by their average income. And when analyzing the top 10 states on Experian’s list, we found that credit scores and income multipliers show a correlation of 0.56.
To that point, residents of Hawaii (772), Minnesota (771), and Oregon (770) have the highest average FICO Scores among the top ten states where Americans hold mortgage debt. And not far behind, Hawaii (5.97x) and Oregon (4.30x) rank first and fourth among states with the highest income multipliers.
Thus, there is a moderate correlation between high FICO Scores and mortgage lenders’ willingness to extend large amounts of credit relative to Americans’ annual incomes.
Top 10 States: | Average FICO Score: | Average Mortgage Balance: | Average Annual Income: | Income Multiplier: |
Hawaii | 772 | $362,947 | $60,807 | 5.97x |
Minnesota | 771 | $190,516 | $64,674 | 2.95x |
Oregon | 770 | $251,687 | $58,544 | 4.30x |
D.C. | 769 | $461,555 | $90,043 | 5.13x |
Washington | 768 | $300,489 | $70,441 | 4.27x |
California | 767 | $391,638 | $74,304 | 5.27x |
Massachusetts | 767 | $274,618 | $81,995 | 3.35x |
Wisconsin | 767 | $151,053 | $57,360 | 2.63x |
New Hampshire | 765 | $195,210 | $68,126 | 2.87x |
Vermont | 765 | $159,231 | $60,396 | 2.64x |
On the flip side, the is an immaterial correlation (0.29) between high FICO Scores at the low end of the distribution and states’ income multipliers. However, the pattern is still relatively present.
For example, Georgia (